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← Explore · Market 2760555

Will the median home value in NYC be between $636,000 and $663,000 on September 30?

25.6% implied · bid 19.8¢ · ask 31.4¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 14.0%, up 0.9pt over 24h, on a 11.6¢ spread.

Implied probability14.0%
Bid / ask / mid19.8¢ / 31.4¢ / 25.6¢
Spread11.6¢ (45.3%)
Change 24h+0.90pt
Change 7d-24.45pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$2,904
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 52 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.7σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean-2.69
RSI (14, hourly)52.0
Realized vol 7d3.81pt
Change 1h+2.95pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 36d 2h.

Time to resolve36d 2h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth