← Explore · Market 2760920
Will Greg Stanton be the AZ-04 Democratic nominee?
92.5% implied · bid 91.0¢ · ask 94.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 94.0%, up 7.0pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability94.0%
Bid / ask / mid91.0¢ / 94.0¢ / 92.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (3.2%)
Change 24h+7.00pt
Change 7d+6.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 36/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 91% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$5,802
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$196 / $1,290
Imbalance91% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 57 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 3.6σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean3.60
RSI (14, hourly)56.8
Realized vol 7d2.15pt
Change 1h+3.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 10d 21h.
Time to resolve10d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%