← Explore · Market 2761627
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026?
82.0% implied · bid 81.0¢ · ask 83.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 88.0%, up 10.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability88.0%
Bid / ask / mid81.0¢ / 83.0¢ / 82.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (2.4%)
Change 24h+10.00pt
Change 7d+18.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 73% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$1,061
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$553 / $183
Imbalance73% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 51 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 3.5σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean3.48
RSI (14, hourly)51.1
Realized vol 7d1.28pt
Change 1h+1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 52d 21h.
Time to resolve52d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%