← Explore · Market 2761628
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by October 31, 2026?
84.5% implied · bid 82.0¢ · ask 87.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 88.0%, down 9.0pt over 24h, on a 5.0¢ spread.
Implied probability88.0%
Bid / ask / mid82.0¢ / 87.0¢ / 84.5¢
Spread5.0¢ (5.9%)
Change 24h-9.00pt
Change 7d-8.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 25/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 80% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$1,375
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$544 / $232
Imbalance80% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score25.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 26 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.9σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.88
RSI (14, hourly)26.3
Realized vol 7d0.88pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 113d 21h.
Time to resolve113d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%