← Explore · Market 2761629
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by December 31, 2026?
74.0% implied · bid 53.0¢ · ask 95.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 91.0%, down 4.0pt over 24h, on a 42.0¢ spread.
Implied probability91.0%
Bid / ask / mid53.0¢ / 95.0¢ / 74.0¢
Spread42.0¢ (56.8%)
Change 24h-4.00pt
Change 7d-19.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 87% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$0
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance87% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 14 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.5σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.53
RSI (14, hourly)13.6
Realized vol 7d2.53pt
Change 1h-1.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 174d 21h.
Time to resolve174d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%