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← Explore · Market 2774492

Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Tour De France?

92.5% implied · bid 92.0¢ · ask 93.0¢

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 93.0%, up 7.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability93.0%
Bid / ask / mid92.0¢ / 93.0¢ / 92.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.1%)
Change 24h+7.00pt
Change 7d+27.00pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Deep and tight (score 81/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 19% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$24,911
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$13,510 / $58,248
Imbalance19% bid
Large trades (>$1k)3
Liquidity score80.9 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 85 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.1σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean2.07
RSI (14, hourly)85.0
Realized vol 7d1.39pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 30d 21h.

Time to resolve30d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth