← Explore · Market 2775405
Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?
11.5% implied · bid 9.0¢ · ask 14.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 12.0%, down 19.5pt over 24h, on a 5.0¢ spread.
Implied probability12.0%
Bid / ask / mid9.0¢ / 14.0¢ / 11.5¢
Spread5.0¢ (43.5%)
Change 24h-19.50pt
Change 7d-28.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 25/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$20
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$11 / $32
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score25.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 26 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.4σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.41
RSI (14, hourly)26.3
Realized vol 7d4.91pt
Change 1h-3.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 28d 6h.
Time to resolve28d 6h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%