← Explore · Market 2775407
Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?
36.5% implied · bid 30.0¢ · ask 43.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 52.0%, down 2.0pt over 24h, on a 13.0¢ spread.
Implied probability52.0%
Bid / ask / mid30.0¢ / 43.0¢ / 36.5¢
Spread13.0¢ (35.6%)
Change 24h-2.00pt
Change 7d-1.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 46 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 4.4σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean4.38
RSI (14, hourly)46.3
Realized vol 7d4.05pt
Change 1h-5.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 28d 6h.
Time to resolve28d 6h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%