← Explore · Market 2775408
Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?
12.0% implied · bid 9.0¢ · ask 15.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 10.0%, down 14.0pt over 24h, on a 6.0¢ spread.
Implied probability10.0%
Bid / ask / mid9.0¢ / 15.0¢ / 12.0¢
Spread6.0¢ (50.0%)
Change 24h-14.00pt
Change 7d-28.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 20/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$358
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $1
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score20.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 29 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.9σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.85
RSI (14, hourly)29.4
Realized vol 7d4.43pt
Change 1h+0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 28d 6h.
Time to resolve28d 6h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%