← Explore · Market 2789984

Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?

44.8% implied · bid 42.0¢ · ask 47.6¢

The market prices this at 46.5%, up 13.7pt over 24h, on a 5.6¢ spread.

Implied probability46.5%

Bid / ask / mid42.0¢ / 47.6¢ / 44.8¢

Spread5.6¢ (12.5%)

Change 24h+13.70pt

Change 7dn/a

Thin (score 22/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 6% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$17,056

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$79 / $292

Imbalance6% bid

Large trades (>$1k)2

Liquidity score22.2 / 100

RSI 81 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.2σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean2.24

RSI (14, hourly)81.2

Realized vol 7d2.91pt

Change 1h-3.20pt

Resolves in 2d 21h.

Time to resolve2d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%