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Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?

9.5% implied · bid 9.0¢ · ask 10.0¢

The market prices this at 12.0%, down 11.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability12.0%

Bid / ask / mid9.0¢ / 10.0¢ / 9.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (10.5%)

Change 24h-11.00pt

Change 7dn/a

Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$27,389

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$401 / $275

Imbalance1% bid

Large trades (>$1k)1

Liquidity score45.3 / 100

RSI 35 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.3σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.33

RSI (14, hourly)35.0

Realized vol 7d0.99pt

Change 1h-5.00pt

Resolves in 4d 14h.

Time to resolve4d 14h

Resolution sourcedocumented

Sum of outcomes100.0%