← Explore · Market 2791016
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?
19.5% implied · bid 19.0¢ · ask 20.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 19.0%, up 4.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability19.0%
Bid / ask / mid19.0¢ / 20.0¢ / 19.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (5.1%)
Change 24h+4.00pt
Change 7dn/a
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$18,336
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$347 / $541
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.19
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.87pt
Change 1h+1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 4d 14h.
Time to resolve4d 14h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%