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← Explore · Market 2791018

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?

20.0% implied · bid 19.9¢ · ask 20.0¢

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 20.0%, up 9.9pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability20.0%
Bid / ask / mid19.9¢ / 20.0¢ / 20.0¢
Spread0.1¢ (0.5%)
Change 24h+9.90pt
Change 7dn/a

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$12,550
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$363 / $576
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score50.0 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 53 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.0σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean1.97
RSI (14, hourly)52.7
Realized vol 7d0.81pt
Change 1h+0.30pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 4d 14h.

Time to resolve4d 14h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth