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Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?

17.8% implied · bid 17.8¢ · ask 17.9¢

The market prices this at 17.0%, up 12.0pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability17.0%

Bid / ask / mid17.8¢ / 17.9¢ / 17.8¢

Spread0.1¢ (0.6%)

Change 24h+12.05pt

Change 7dn/a

Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 4% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$11,643

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$536 / $565

Imbalance4% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score50.1 / 100

RSI 65 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.4σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean2.44

RSI (14, hourly)65.1

Realized vol 7d0.87pt

Change 1h+3.65pt

Resolves in 4d 14h.

Time to resolve4d 14h

Resolution sourcedocumented

Sum of outcomes100.0%