← Explore · Market 2791024
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?
12.0% implied · bid 12.0¢ · ask 12.1¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 10.7%, up 9.2pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability10.7%
Bid / ask / mid12.0¢ / 12.1¢ / 12.0¢
Spread0.1¢ (0.8%)
Change 24h+9.20pt
Change 7dn/a
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$9,698
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$717 / $398
Imbalance2% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score50.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 62 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.3σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.32
RSI (14, hourly)62.4
Realized vol 7d0.65pt
Change 1h+2.70pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 4d 13h.
Time to resolve4d 13h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%