← Explore · Market 2817844
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?
2.5% implied · bid 0.7¢ · ask 4.4¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 2.5%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 3.7¢ spread.
Implied probability2.5%
Bid / ask / mid0.7¢ / 4.4¢ / 2.5¢
Spread3.7¢ (145.1%)
Change 24h-0.50pt
Change 7dn/a
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 32/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$358
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$7 / $46
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score31.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 46 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.77
RSI (14, hourly)45.9
Realized vol 7d1.11pt
Change 1h+0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 20d 21h.
Time to resolve20d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%