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← Explore · Market 2817849

Will Donald Trump visit Portugal in 2026?

37.5% implied · bid 3.0¢ · ask 72.0¢

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 37.5%, down 3.0pt over 24h, on a 69.0¢ spread.

Implied probability37.5%
Bid / ask / mid3.0¢ / 72.0¢ / 37.5¢
Spread69.0¢ (184.0%)
Change 24h-3.00pt
Change 7dn/a

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$0
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 45 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.5σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.51
RSI (14, hourly)45.5
Realized vol 7d0.68pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 173d 21h.

Time to resolve173d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth