← Explore · Market 2817996

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?

2.4% implied · bid 2.1¢ · ask 2.6¢

The market prices this at 3.0%, down 22.7pt over 24h, on a 0.5¢ spread.

Implied probability3.0%

Bid / ask / mid2.1¢ / 2.6¢ / 2.4¢

Spread0.5¢ (21.3%)

Change 24h-22.65pt

Change 7dn/a

Moderately liquid (score 48/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$20,791

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$107 / $116

Imbalance1% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score47.6 / 100

RSI 29 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.5σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean-2.52

RSI (14, hourly)29.0

Realized vol 7d2.34pt

Change 1h-2.10pt

Resolves in 1d 13h.

Time to resolve1d 13h

Resolution sourcedocumented

Sum of outcomes100.0%