← Explore · Market 2817999

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?

32.5% implied · bid 32.0¢ · ask 33.0¢

The market prices this at 32.0%, down 21.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability32.0%

Bid / ask / mid32.0¢ / 33.0¢ / 32.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (3.1%)

Change 24h-21.50pt

Change 7dn/a

Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 4% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$12,459

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$416 / $522

Imbalance4% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score45.5 / 100

RSI 33 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 4.6σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean-4.64

RSI (14, hourly)32.7

Realized vol 7d2.26pt

Change 1h-10.50pt

Resolves in 1d 13h.

Time to resolve1d 13h

Resolution sourcedocumented

Sum of outcomes100.0%