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← Explore · Market 2818005

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?

16.4% implied · bid 16.3¢ · ask 16.4¢

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 15.7%, up 12.7pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability15.7%
Bid / ask / mid16.3¢ / 16.4¢ / 16.4¢
Spread0.1¢ (0.6%)
Change 24h+12.70pt
Change 7dn/a

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$14,473
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$304 / $316
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score49.8 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 69 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 3.6σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean3.63
RSI (14, hourly)68.5
Realized vol 7d1.31pt
Change 1h+4.40pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 1d 13h.

Time to resolve1d 13h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth