← Explore · Market 2820206
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?
23.5% implied · bid 23.0¢ · ask 24.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 24.0%, down 1.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability24.0%
Bid / ask / mid23.0¢ / 24.0¢ / 23.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (4.3%)
Change 24h-1.50pt
Change 7dn/a
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$5,277
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,609 / $1,781
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score47.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.06
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d3.63pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 36d 21h.
Time to resolve36d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%