← Explore · Market 2820498

Will 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?

25.0% implied · bid 24.0¢ · ask 26.0¢

The market prices this at 24.0%, down 7.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.

Implied probability24.0%

Bid / ask / mid24.0¢ / 26.0¢ / 25.0¢

Spread2.0¢ (8.0%)

Change 24h-7.50pt

Change 7dn/a

Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 7% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$2,877

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$322 / $94

Imbalance7% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score40.2 / 100

RSI 48 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.20

RSI (14, hourly)48.4

Realized vol 7d3.06pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 21d 21h.

Time to resolve21d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%