← Explore · Market 2820499

Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?

96.7% implied · bid 96.3¢ · ask 97.1¢

The market prices this at 96.4%, up 0.4pt over 24h, on a 0.8¢ spread.

Implied probability96.4%

Bid / ask / mid96.3¢ / 97.1¢ / 96.7¢

Spread0.8¢ (0.8%)

Change 24h+0.40pt

Change 7dn/a

Deep and tight (score 96/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 24% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$10,710

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$4,832 / $124,033

Imbalance24% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score96.0 / 100

RSI 34 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.12

RSI (14, hourly)34.2

Realized vol 7d1.14pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 21d 21h.

Time to resolve21d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%