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Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?

35.0% implied · bid 34.0¢ · ask 36.0¢

The market prices this at 35.0%, down 4.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.

Implied probability35.0%

Bid / ask / mid34.0¢ / 36.0¢ / 35.0¢

Spread2.0¢ (5.7%)

Change 24h-4.00pt

Change 7dn/a

Moderately liquid (score 43/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 6% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$17,216

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$4,357 / $1,800

Imbalance6% bid

Large trades (>$1k)1

Liquidity score43.1 / 100

RSI 21 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.38

RSI (14, hourly)21.1

Realized vol 7d3.45pt

Change 1h+1.00pt

Resolves in 52d 21h.

Time to resolve52d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%