← Explore · Market 2822003
Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?
1.8% implied · bid 1.6¢ · ask 2.1¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 1.9%, down 0.3pt over 24h, on a 0.5¢ spread.
Implied probability1.9%
Bid / ask / mid1.6¢ / 2.1¢ / 1.8¢
Spread0.5¢ (27.0%)
Change 24h-0.35pt
Change 7dn/a
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 49/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$2,374
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$972 / $2,083
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score49.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 59 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.60
RSI (14, hourly)58.8
Realized vol 7d0.27pt
Change 1h-0.15pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 52d 16h.
Time to resolve52d 16h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%