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Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?

11.5% implied · bid 11.0¢ · ask 12.0¢

The market prices this at 11.0%, down 2.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability11.0%

Bid / ask / mid11.0¢ / 12.0¢ / 11.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (8.7%)

Change 24h-2.00pt

Change 7dn/a

Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$7,260

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$743 / $313

Imbalance3% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score45.5 / 100

RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.7σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.66

RSI (14, hourly)50.0

Realized vol 7d0.74pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 7d 13h.

Time to resolve7d 13h

Resolution sourcedocumented

Sum of outcomes100.0%