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← Explore · Market 2825515

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?

14.5% implied · bid 14.0¢ · ask 15.0¢

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 15.0%, down 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability15.0%
Bid / ask / mid14.0¢ / 15.0¢ / 14.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (6.9%)
Change 24h-1.00pt
Change 7dn/a

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$2,219
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$864 / $504
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.7 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 0 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.65
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.69pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 7d 13h.

Time to resolve7d 13h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth