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← Explore · Market 2825520

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?

13.5% implied · bid 13.0¢ · ask 14.0¢

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 14.0%, up 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability14.0%
Bid / ask / mid13.0¢ / 14.0¢ / 13.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (7.4%)
Change 24h+1.00pt
Change 7dn/a

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$955
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$948 / $617
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.8 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.83
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.85pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 7d 13h.

Time to resolve7d 13h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth