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← Explore · Market 2829167

Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?

16.9% implied · bid 16.8¢ · ask 17.0¢

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 16.8%, up 0.4pt over 24h, on a 0.3¢ spread.

Implied probability16.8%
Bid / ask / mid16.8¢ / 17.0¢ / 16.9¢
Spread0.3¢ (1.5%)
Change 24h+0.38pt
Change 7dn/a

B · Liquidity & flow

Deep and tight (score 99/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 16% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$225,178
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$675,376 / $421,127
Imbalance16% bid
Large trades (>$1k)6
Liquidity score98.8 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.1σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean2.12
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d0.03pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 0d 17h.

Time to resolve0d 17h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth