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Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?

9.5% implied · bid 7.0¢ · ask 12.0¢

The market prices this at 10.0%, down 2.5pt over 24h, on a 5.0¢ spread.

Implied probability10.0%

Bid / ask / mid7.0¢ / 12.0¢ / 9.5¢

Spread5.0¢ (52.6%)

Change 24h-2.50pt

Change 7dn/a

Thin (score 25/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$548

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$39 / $163

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score25.1 / 100

RSI 28 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.15

RSI (14, hourly)27.8

Realized vol 7d1.67pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 2d 21h.

Time to resolve2d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%