← Explore · Market 2839297
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
1.8% implied · bid 1.2¢ · ask 2.5¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 2.5%, down 1.6pt over 24h, on a 1.3¢ spread.
Implied probability2.5%
Bid / ask / mid1.2¢ / 2.5¢ / 1.8¢
Spread1.3¢ (70.3%)
Change 24h-1.55pt
Change 7dn/a
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 44/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$443
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$42 / $375
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score43.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 13 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.50
RSI (14, hourly)12.9
Realized vol 7d4.71pt
Change 1h-0.10pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 20d 21h.
Time to resolve20d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%