← Explore · Market 2839298
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
5.5% implied · bid 5.0¢ · ask 6.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 6.0%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability6.0%
Bid / ask / mid5.0¢ / 6.0¢ / 5.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (18.2%)
Change 24h-0.50pt
Change 7dn/a
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$74,358
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$463 / $680
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.49
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d4.39pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 20d 21h.
Time to resolve20d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%