← Explore · Market 2839992

Will the next Grok model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1440 by December 31, 2026?

91.5% implied · bid 91.0¢ · ask 92.0¢

The market prices this at 90.0%, up 2.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability90.0%

Bid / ask / mid91.0¢ / 92.0¢ / 91.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (1.1%)

Change 24h+2.00pt

Change 7dn/a

Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 71% to the bid (buyers).

Volume 24h$6,301

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$405 / $2,245

Imbalance71% bid

Large trades (>$1k)4

Liquidity score46.3 / 100

RSI 49 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.38

RSI (14, hourly)48.8

Realized vol 7d6.33pt

Change 1h+10.00pt

Resolves in 174d 21h.

Time to resolve174d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%