← Explore · Market 2839993
Will the next Grok model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1450 by December 31, 2026?
84.5% implied · bid 83.0¢ · ask 86.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 85.0%, down 5.0pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability85.0%
Bid / ask / mid83.0¢ / 86.0¢ / 84.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (3.6%)
Change 24h-5.00pt
Change 7dn/a
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 68% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$1,640
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$225 / $282
Imbalance68% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 42 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.49
RSI (14, hourly)42.1
Realized vol 7d3.84pt
Change 1h+7.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 174d 21h.
Time to resolve174d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%