← Explore · Market 2839994
Will the next Grok model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026?
77.0% implied · bid 75.0¢ · ask 79.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 76.0%, up 12.5pt over 24h, on a 4.0¢ spread.
Implied probability76.0%
Bid / ask / mid75.0¢ / 79.0¢ / 77.0¢
Spread4.0¢ (5.2%)
Change 24h+12.50pt
Change 7dn/a
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 30/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 15% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,110
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$86 / $75
Imbalance15% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score30.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 65 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.23
RSI (14, hourly)65.2
Realized vol 7d6.78pt
Change 1h+14.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 174d 21h.
Time to resolve174d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%