← Explore · Market 2839995
Will the next Grok model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?
46.0% implied · bid 40.0¢ · ask 52.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 34.0%, down 7.0pt over 24h, on a 12.0¢ spread.
Implied probability34.0%
Bid / ask / mid40.0¢ / 52.0¢ / 46.0¢
Spread12.0¢ (26.1%)
Change 24h-7.00pt
Change 7dn/a
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$630
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 65 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.88
RSI (14, hourly)64.7
Realized vol 7d8.15pt
Change 1h+4.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 174d 21h.
Time to resolve174d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%