← Explore · Market 2846104

Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?

32.6% implied · bid 32.1¢ · ask 33.2¢

The market prices this at 32.0%, up 0.5pt over 24h, on a 1.1¢ spread.

Implied probability32.0%

Bid / ask / mid32.1¢ / 33.2¢ / 32.6¢

Spread1.1¢ (3.4%)

Change 24h+0.45pt

Change 7dn/a

Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 5% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$1,191

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$869 / $73

Imbalance5% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score45.0 / 100

RSI 86 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.31

RSI (14, hourly)85.7

Realized vol 7d9.65pt

Change 1h-0.05pt

Resolves in 355d 21h.

Time to resolve355d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%