← Explore · Market 2846105

Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?

21.0% implied · bid 20.0¢ · ask 22.0¢

The market prices this at 22.0%, down 8.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.

Implied probability22.0%

Bid / ask / mid20.0¢ / 22.0¢ / 21.0¢

Spread2.0¢ (9.5%)

Change 24h-8.50pt

Change 7dn/a

Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$5,449

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$36 / $147

Imbalance1% bid

Large trades (>$1k)1

Liquidity score40.1 / 100

RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.0σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.98

RSI (14, hourly)0.0

Realized vol 7d10.70pt

Change 1h-8.50pt

Resolves in 355d 21h.

Time to resolve355d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%