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← Explore · Market 2849008

Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?

29.5% implied · bid 29.0¢ · ask 30.0¢

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 30.0%, down 6.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability30.0%
Bid / ask / mid29.0¢ / 30.0¢ / 29.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (3.4%)
Change 24h-6.50pt
Change 7dn/a

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 4% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$1,277
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$861 / $332
Imbalance4% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.6 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.50
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d4.73pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 52d 21h.

Time to resolve52d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth