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← Explore · Market 2849356

US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?

3.1% implied · bid 2.7¢ · ask 3.6¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 2.4%, down 0.7pt over 24h, on a 0.9¢ spread.

Implied probability2.4%
Bid / ask / mid2.7¢ / 3.6¢ / 3.1¢
Spread0.9¢ (28.6%)
Change 24h-0.70pt
Change 7d-4.35pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$26,210
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,439 / $680
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score46.6 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 41 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.38
RSI (14, hourly)41.5
Realized vol 7d0.43pt
Change 1h-0.15pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 7d 2h.

Time to resolve7d 2h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth