← Explore · Market 2849424

Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?

68.5% implied · bid 68.0¢ · ask 69.0¢

The market prices this at 66.0%, down 2.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability66.0%

Bid / ask / mid68.0¢ / 69.0¢ / 68.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (1.5%)

Change 24h-2.00pt

Change 7d+1.00pt

Moderately liquid (score 53/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 12% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$22,691

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$8,610 / $6,448

Imbalance12% bid

Large trades (>$1k)2

Liquidity score52.5 / 100

RSI 42 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.22

RSI (14, hourly)41.7

Realized vol 7d0.49pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 128d 22h.

Time to resolve128d 22h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%