← Explore · Market 2851416
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 11?
17.5% implied · bid 17.0¢ · ask 18.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 19.0%, down 17.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability19.0%
Bid / ask / mid17.0¢ / 18.0¢ / 17.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (5.7%)
Change 24h-17.50pt
Change 7dn/a
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$3,046
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$13 / $74
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 21 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.5σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.45
RSI (14, hourly)20.6
Realized vol 7d2.89pt
Change 1h-1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1d 21h.
Time to resolve1d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%