← Explore · Market 2851417
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?
23.0% implied · bid 20.0¢ · ask 26.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 29.0%, down 20.5pt over 24h, on a 6.0¢ spread.
Implied probability29.0%
Bid / ask / mid20.0¢ / 26.0¢ / 23.0¢
Spread6.0¢ (26.1%)
Change 24h-20.50pt
Change 7dn/a
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 20/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$542
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$21 / $60
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score20.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 38 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.37
RSI (14, hourly)37.8
Realized vol 7d5.58pt
Change 1h-6.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 2d 21h.
Time to resolve2d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%