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Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?

17.5% implied · bid 15.0¢ · ask 20.0¢

The market prices this at 21.0%, down 29.0pt over 24h, on a 5.0¢ spread.

Implied probability21.0%

Bid / ask / mid15.0¢ / 20.0¢ / 17.5¢

Spread5.0¢ (28.6%)

Change 24h-29.00pt

Change 7dn/a

Thin (score 25/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$310

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$15 / $27

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score25.0 / 100

RSI 7 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.24

RSI (14, hourly)6.9

Realized vol 7d3.75pt

Change 1h-3.00pt

Resolves in 5d 21h.

Time to resolve5d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%