← Explore · Market 2851436
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?
19.0% implied · bid 6.0¢ · ask 32.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 42.0%, down 25.5pt over 24h, on a 26.0¢ spread.
Implied probability42.0%
Bid / ask / mid6.0¢ / 32.0¢ / 19.0¢
Spread26.0¢ (136.8%)
Change 24h-25.50pt
Change 7dn/a
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$23
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 5 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.6σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.55
RSI (14, hourly)4.5
Realized vol 7d3.70pt
Change 1h-1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 21d 21h.
Time to resolve21d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%