← Explore · Market 2852855

Will there be 5 or fewer UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?

21.5% implied · bid 21.0¢ · ask 22.0¢

The market prices this at 21.0%, down 32.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability21.0%

Bid / ask / mid21.0¢ / 22.0¢ / 21.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (4.7%)

Change 24h-32.50pt

Change 7dn/a

Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$2,189

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$30 / $158

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score45.1 / 100

RSI 63 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.26

RSI (14, hourly)62.5

Realized vol 7d5.88pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 174d 21h.

Time to resolve174d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%