← Explore · Market 2852856
Will there be exactly 6 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?
44.5% implied · bid 44.0¢ · ask 45.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 45.0%, up 7.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability45.0%
Bid / ask / mid44.0¢ / 45.0¢ / 44.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (2.2%)
Change 24h+7.00pt
Change 7dn/a
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 16% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,949
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$505 / $843
Imbalance16% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.2σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.17
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d5.30pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 174d 21h.
Time to resolve174d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%