← Explore · Market 2852857
Will there be exactly 7 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?
21.0% implied · bid 20.0¢ · ask 22.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 23.0%, up 5.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability23.0%
Bid / ask / mid20.0¢ / 22.0¢ / 21.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (9.5%)
Change 24h+5.00pt
Change 7dn/a
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$634
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$95 / $60
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 80 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.7σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.73
RSI (14, hourly)80.0
Realized vol 7d6.33pt
Change 1h-0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 174d 21h.
Time to resolve174d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%