← Explore · Market 2852858

Will there be exactly 8 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?

13.5% implied · bid 11.0¢ · ask 16.0¢

The market prices this at 12.0%, down 7.0pt over 24h, on a 5.0¢ spread.

Implied probability12.0%

Bid / ask / mid11.0¢ / 16.0¢ / 13.5¢

Spread5.0¢ (37.0%)

Change 24h-7.00pt

Change 7dn/a

Thin (score 25/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$137

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$19 / $35

Imbalance1% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score25.0 / 100

RSI 75 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.31

RSI (14, hourly)75.0

Realized vol 7d6.24pt

Change 1h-0.50pt

Resolves in 174d 21h.

Time to resolve174d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%