← Explore · Market 2853074
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
17.5% implied · bid 17.0¢ · ask 18.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 18.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability18.0%
Bid / ask / mid17.0¢ / 18.0¢ / 17.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (5.7%)
Change 24h+0.00pt
Change 7d-1.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 4% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$5,600
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3,228 / $1,337
Imbalance4% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score47.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.0σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.01
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.46pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 129d 3h.
Time to resolve129d 3h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%